Principles, Approaches, Methods for Assessing Environmental Risk

Category	Lectures
Sub-Categories	n/a
Year	2015
Author(s)	Haakon Vennemo
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Principles	, 	approaches	, 	models	 for 	managing	 	environmental	 risk 	
Haakon 	Vennemo	 	Workshop in 	Anshun	, May 20, 2015

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Content 
• Introduction	 	• Managing	 environmental	 risk: 	Principles	 	• Managing	 environmental	 risk: 	Priorities	 	• Managing	 environmental	 risk: 	Approaches	 	• Managing	 environmental	 risk: Models and Tools

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Our 	framework	 	
• 	Seven 	steps	 for regional 	environmental	 risk 	assessment	 (part A) 	• 	Acute	 regional 	environmental	 risk 	investigation	 (part 	B) • 	Accumulated	/chronic	 regional 	environmental	 risk 	investigation	 (part C) 	• 	Environmental	 risk 	assessment	 from 	principles	 to 	policy (Part D) • 	The 	framework	 is 	meant	 as a management 	tool	 	• 	By 	raising	 awareness	 about	 regional risk 	levels	 	• 	By suggesting 	cost-effective	 prevention	 and 	mitigation	 	measures

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Chinese	 	provinces	, 	prefectures	 and 	cities

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From 	principles	 to policy 	
• 	For 	planners	 seeking	 a 	deeper	 explanation	 of	 	proposed	 process	 and 	methods	 	• 	And/or 	faces	 problems 	that	 require	 new	/modified	 	methods	 	• 	Economic	 approach	 to 	environmental	 risk 	management

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From 	principles	 to policy 	
• 	Principles	 	• 	Priorities	 	• 	Approaches	 	• 	Models and Tools 	• 	Policy and 	Regulatory	 Instruments

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From 	principles	 to policy 	
• 	Principles	 	• 	Priorities	 	• 	Approaches	 	• 	Models and Tools 	• 	Policy and 	Regulatory	 Instruments 	• 	Mostly	 focus	 on	 principles	, 	priorities	 and 	approaches	 	today

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Optimal, not minimal risk 
• 	Does	 the	 benefit	 in terms 	of	 risk 	reduction	 outweigh	 	the	 cost	? 	• 	ALARP = As 	Low	 as 	Reasonably	 Practicable	 	
!
!!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!	
Cost
!	
Environmental!risk
!	
ALARP	!	
Min!risk	!	Max!risk	!

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ALARP 	changes	 over time 	
• 	Scientific 	knowledge	 evolves	 	• 	Public 	understanding	 of	 risk 	improves	 	• 	Public’s	 aversion	 to risk 	may	 have 	increased	 	• 	Public’s	 habitual	 tolerance	 to risk is 	probably	 lower	 	• 	The 	control	 technologies	 improve	 	
Knowledge-	evolves	-	Risk-	aversion	-increases	-	Min-risk	 	Max-risk	 	 -- --- Control-	technologies	-	improve	-	ALARP	 	ALARP-	becomes	-more-	strict	--

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Optimal risk is an area 
• 	ALARP is 	difficult	 (impossible) to 	pinpoint	 exactly	. 	Intolerable-Broadly	-	-acceptable	-

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ALARP, risk 	prevention	 and risk 	mitigation	 	
• 	F = 	frequency	/probability	; C = 	consequence	 	• 	The 	accident	 scenario x 	presents	 intolerable risk. May 	be 	mitigated	 (	lower	 C, 	constant	 F) or 	prevented	 (	lower	 	F, 	constant	 C) 	• 	More 	than	 one	 consequence	: Risk = 	
∑	
=	
N	
i	
i	i	
C	F	
1

vista&	analyse.no	-	2013,&	Haze&pollu/on&	in	&Beijing	 	From:&Health&Eﬀects&Ins3tute,&2013.&	Global&burden&of&disease&(GBD):&outdoor&air&PM	2.5	&contributed&	annually&over&to&1.24&million&premature&deaths&in&China&in&2010&	The&	GBD	 2010	 study	 	Chinese&deaths&aKributable&to&13&leading&risk&factors&2010&Deaths&aKributable&to&ambient&par/culate&maKer&pollu/on&in&China&in&2010	 	
Air 	pollution	 risks: PM	
2.5

vista&	analyse.no	-	2005,&	cadmium&pollu/on&	in&	Beijiang	&	River&	 	2005,&	water&pollu/on&	in&	Songhua&River	 	2012,&	cadmium&pollu/on&	in&	Longjiang	&River&	 	 	2008,&	arsenic&pollu/on&	in&	Yangzong	&Lake	 	2010,&	oil&pipeline&	explosion&	in&Dalian	& 	2007,&	outbreak&of&blue&	green&algae&	in&	Taihu	&Lake	 	2005,&	liquid&chlorine&leak&	in&	Huai’an	 	2004,&	chlorine&leak&	in&	Chongqing	 	2011,&	chromium&slag&	pollu/on&	in&	Qujing	 	2004,&	water&pollu/on&	in&	Tuojiang	&River	 	2012,&	elevated&childhood&blood&	lead	&in&Shaoguan,&Guangdong	 	2010,&	elevated&childhood&blood&lead	&in&	Jiahe	,&Hunan	 	2009,&	elevated&childhood&	blood&lead	&in&Shanxi	 	2006,&	benzene&leak&	in&Taiyuan	 	2010,&	copper\tainted&	wastewater&leak&	in&Fujian	 	2011,&	ConocoPhillips&oil&	leak	&in&	Bohai	&Bay	 	2013,&	Haze&pollu/on&in	&Beijing	 	
Pollution	 	accidents	 in China

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In general, 	what	 do 	we	 	know	 	about	 	consequences	 	
• 	Classical	 air 	pollutants	: PM	2.5	 ! 	• 	Chemical 	substances	 	• 	MEP Guideline for Risk 	Assessment	 of	 Environmental	 	Accidents	 in Enterprises (2014): 310 	substances	 	• 	MEP List 	of	 Hazardous	 chemicals	 for 	prioritized	 	environmental	 management (2014): 84 	substances	 (all 	of	 	which	 are	 included	 in 	the	 310.

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International Reference Life Cycle	 Data System (ILCD) 	
• 	Altogether	 40 000 	pollutant-receptor	 	combinations! • 	Persistence	 	• 	Bio-accumulation	 	• 	Toxicity	 	• 	Reduction	 of	 	stratospheric	 ozone	 	• 	Climate	 change	 	
Rank%	%	
(worst%=%1%etc)	%	
Human% toxicity,%
cancer	%	
Human% toxicity,%
non	8cancer	%	
Ecotoxicity,%
freshwater	%	
Eutrophication,%
freshwater	%	
1%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6water	6	
PCB	&12546 to6	
water	6	
2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6	
Phosphorus,6
total6	6	
2%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6air	6	
Mercury6to6soil	6	1,2,3,7,8	&	
pentachloribenzo	&p&	
dioxin	6	
Phosphoric6acid	6	
3%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6soil	6	
Mercury6to6air	6	Cyfluthrin	6	Phospate	6	
4%	Photomirex6 to6
water	6	
PCB	&12546to6air	6	Estradiol	6	6	
5%	PCB	&12606	to6water	6	PCB	&10166 to6	
water	6	
beta	&cypermethrin6	
isomer	6	
6	
6%	Heptachlor6 epoxide6
to6water	6	
PCB	&12546to6soil	6	Cyhalothrin	6	6	
7%	PCB	&12546to6water	6	Cadmium6to6soil	6	Fenpropathrin	6	6	
8%	DDD6to6water	6	Beryllium6to6air	6	Antimycin6A	6	6	
9%	Aflatoxin6 B16 to6
water	6	
Hydramethylnon6
to6	water	6	
Cypermethrin	6	6	
10	%	Toxaphene6 to6
water	6	
PCB	&10166 to6	
water	6	
Alpha	&cypermethrin	6	6	
6

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In general, 	what	 do 	we	 	know	 	about	 	frequencies	? 	
• 	Zhang and 	Zheng	 (2012) used data 	on	 1632 	hazardous	 chemical	 accidents	 2006-2010 	reported	 by 	State 	Work	 Accident	 Briefing System (SWAB) and 	Chemical 	Accidents	 Communications (SAWS). 	• 	Li et al (2014) used data 	on	 1400 	sudden	 chemicals	 	leakage	 accidents	 2006-2011 from National 	Registration	 Center for Chemicals (NRCC), a 	department	 of	 SWAB. 666 used for 	study	 since	 little	 or 	no	 damage	 from 	the	 others	. 	• 	Zhang and 	Zheng	: 67% in 	fixed	 facilities	, 33% in 	transport. • 	Li et al: 66% in transport 	• 	What	 to 	believe	???

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In general, 	what	 do 	we	 	know	 	about	 	frequencies	? 	
• 	40% 	of	 accidents	 are	 releases	. 	Next	 come	 explosions	. 	Finally	 fires 	• 	Domino 	effects	 occured	 in 10% 	of	 all cases. 	Releases	 	followed	 by 	explosion	 	• 	Flammable	 liquids	 are	 the	 most 	common	 substance	 in 	accidents	, 	followed	 by 	corrosive	 gases	 	• 	Overlapping 	functions	 between	 departments	 cause	 	conflict	 of	 interest	. As a 	result	 some	 enterprises	 ignore	 	qualification	 requirement	 and do not 	implement	 safety	 	management 	regulations

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In general, 	what	 do 	we	 	know	 	about	 	frequencies	? 	
• 	Training 	of	 drivers is not 	good	 enough	. 	Overloading	, 	overspeeding	, 	modification	 of	 chemical	 storage	 	containers, illegal 	operations	 	• 	Defect	 equipment	, from 	ignoring	 daily	 maintenance	, 	examination	 may	 cause	 corrotion	 and 	ageing	 to 	go	 	undetected	 	• 	Behind	 rule-breaking	 behaviour	 is 	found	 faulty	 	procedures	, 	poor	 training, persistent 	use	 of	 too	 long	 	shifts	. Point to 	corporate	 management 	failure	 as 	the	 	root	 cause	. 	• 	«The 	strong	 economic	 ties 	between	 local	 county	 	governments	 and 	chemical	 small	 and medium 	enterprises	» 	another	 root	 cause	 (He et al, 2014)

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In general, 	what	 do 	we	 	know	 	about	 	industry	 risk? 	
• 	12th 5Y plan for 	Environmental	 Risk 	Prevention	 and Control 	of	 Chemicals 	• 	Petroleum 	processing	 	• 	Chemical 	raw	 materials 	• 	Chemical 	product	 manufacturing	 	• 	Pharmaceutical	 manufacturing	 	• 	Non 	ferrous	 metal smelting 	• 	Textile	 anchoring	 	• 	Guidance	 for 	implementing	 pilot 	work	 of	 environmental	 	liability	 insurance	 	• 	Non 	ferrous	 metal 	mining	 	• 	Non 	ferrous	 metal smelting 	• 	Lead acid 	battery	 manufacturing	 	• 	Leather	 and 	leather	 products	 	• 	Chemical 	raw	 materials and 	products	 manufacturing

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Three 	core	 elements 	of	 	the	 	approach	 	
• 	More 	information	: 	Monitoring	, 	inspections	 and 	procedures	 	• 	Determine	 what	 is 	acceptable	: Evaluations and 	assessments	 	• 	Reduce	 unacceptable	 environmental	 risk: Plans and 	procedures	, from 	early	 warning	 to 	emergency	 	response	 	• 	Behind	 it all is a 	legal 	framework	 and 	institutions	 with	 	designated	 responsibilities	. 	• 	Plans and 	procedures	 must be 	implemented	.

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More 	information	 	
• 	Many	 risks 	are	 not 	known	 	by 	anybody	 	• 	Some	 risks 	are	 known	 by 	the	 companies	 but	 not by 	regulators • 	Inverted	 burden	 of	 proof	 	(REACH) • 	Accident	 prevention	 policy 	(Seveso) • 	Designated	 employees	 	(ISO 14000) • 	Disclosure	 to media, 	NGOs LOC:%Loss%	of	%containment	%	So-	much	-that	-can	-go	-wrong	-

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Determining	 	what	 is 	acceptable	 	
• 	Tradition	 air 	pollution	: Air 	quality	 standards and 	emission	 reduction	 targets 	based	 on	 cost-benefit	 	considerations	 	• 	In Europe: IIASA 	• 	Hazardous	 chemicals	: 	Cruder	 approach	 	• 	Cumbersome	 process	 of	 registration	 and 	approval	 	• 	Restrictions	 on	 usage	 – 	only	 certain	 purposes 	• 	Safe 	distance	 requirements

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Determining	 	what	 is 	acceptable	 	
• 	Water 	pollution	: 	zoning	 in combination 	with	 discharge	 	standards • 	Biodiversity	: 	zoning	 in combination 	with	 restrictions	 on	 	usage	 	• 	No 	coincidence	 that	 national	 parks 	are	 disproportionally	 	located	 in areas 	of	 economic	 low	 value

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Reduce	 	the	 	unacceptable	 	
• 	Emergency	 response	 plans 	• 	Monitoring	/forecasting	 & flagging 	acute	 incidents	 	• 	Public alert system 	• 	To-do plans (hospital, 	schools	 etc	) 	• 	Depots 	• 	Drills 	• 	Etc	 	• 	Ordinary	 plans 	• 	Land 	use	 plans 	• 	River management plans 	• 	Economy-ecology	 plans and scenarios 	• 	Backed	 up by 	models	 and 	tools	 	• 	Supported	 by policy

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Models and 	tools	 	
• 	Tools in 	the	 form 	of	 lists 	• 	Best available technique reference documents (BREF) 	for determining what constitutes a best available technology (BAT) in a large number of industrial sectors. Environmental regulation often requires BAT. 	 	• 	A list of 33 priority substances and 8 other pollutants that 	define Good Chemical Status of a water body. Good Chemical Status is a concept of the Water Framework Directive of the EU.	 	• 	Annex XIV of the EU REACH Regulation lists 	Substances of Very High Concern (SVHC). • 	Etc.

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Models and 	tools	 	
• 	Models and 	methods	 for 	Acute	 risk and 	environmental	 	response	 	• 	MEP ‘Guidelines for Environmental risk assessment of 	Construction Projects’ (2004) gives recommended models and methodologies on how to calculate the amount and rate of accidental leakage, such as hazardous substances diffused in water and air, oil slick, etc.

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Models and 	tools	 	
• 	Models and 	methods	 for 	Acute	 risk and 	environmental	 	response	 	• 	The ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres) 	is a program of the US EPA designed to model chemical releases for emergency responders and planners. It can estimate how a toxic cloud might disperse after a chemical release and also features several fires and explosions scenarios. ALOHA displays its estimate as a threat zone, which is an area where a hazard (such as toxicity, flammability, thermal radiation, or damaging overpressure) has exceeded a user-specified Level of Concern (LOC). Other models with a similar purpose include the 	Phast	 model of DNV GL (proprietary) and the 	ADAM tool of the European Commission. 	 	• 	Etc	 	• 	Etc

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Conclusions	 	
• 	The goal is optimal 	environmental	 risk, not 	minimal 	environmental	 	risk 
!
!!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!	
Cost
!	
Environmental!risk
!	
ALARP	!	
Min!risk	!	Max!risk	!

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Conclusions	 	
• 	Optimal risk is an area 	of	 broadly	 acceptable	 	risk

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Conclusions	 	
• 	PM2.5 is 	the	 most 	dangerous	 of	 the	 	«	classical	 pollutants	» 	to air

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Conclusions	 	
• 	There	 are	 lists 	of	 	hazardous	 substance	 	with	 the	 most 	serious	 	consequences	 	
Rank%	%	
(worst%=%1%etc)	%	
Human% toxicity,%
cancer	%	
Human% toxicity,%
non	8cancer	%	
Ecotoxicity,%
freshwater	%	
Eutrophication,%
freshwater	%	
1%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6water	6	
PCB	&12546 to6	
water	6	
2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6	
Phosphorus,6
total6	6	
2%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6air	6	
Mercury6to6soil	6	1,2,3,7,8	&	
pentachloribenzo	&p&	
dioxin	6	
Phosphoric6acid	6	
3%	2,3,7,8	&	
tetrachlorodibenzo	&	
p&dioxin	6to6soil	6	
Mercury6to6air	6	Cyfluthrin	6	Phospate	6	
4%	Photomirex6 to6
water	6	
PCB	&12546to6air	6	Estradiol	6	6	
5%	PCB	&12606	to6water	6	PCB	&10166 to6	
water	6	
beta	&cypermethrin6	
isomer	6	
6	
6%	Heptachlor6 epoxide6
to6water	6	
PCB	&12546to6soil	6	Cyhalothrin	6	6	
7%	PCB	&12546to6water	6	Cadmium6to6soil	6	Fenpropathrin	6	6	
8%	DDD6to6water	6	Beryllium6to6air	6	Antimycin6A	6	6	
9%	Aflatoxin6 B16 to6
water	6	
Hydramethylnon6
to6	water	6	
Cypermethrin	6	6	
10	%	Toxaphene6 to6
water	6	
PCB	&10166 to6	
water	6	
Alpha	&cypermethrin	6	6	
6

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Conclusions	 	
• 	Fixed	 facilities	 and transport 	both	 frequent	 sources	 of	 	accidents	 	• 	Releases	, e.g., 	of	 flammable	 	liquids	, is a 	frequent	 type 	of	 	accidents	 	• 	Internal	 management 	failure	 	suggested as a 	root	 cause	 	• 	Helped	 by overlapping 	responsibilities	 of	 departments	 	• 	And 	strong	 economic	 ties 	between	 local	 government	 and 	enterprises

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Conclusions	 	
• 	Elements 	of	 the	 approach	 are	 	• 	Strategy	 for 	assembling	 	information	 	• 	Strategy	 and 	rules	 to in 	practice	 determine	 what	 is 	acceptable	 risk 	• 	Strategy	 and 	rules	 for 	reducing	 	remaining	 risk 	• 	There	 is a 	great	 number	 of	 	models	 and 	tools	 available	 on	 	different 	aspects	 of	 risk. From 	simple lists to 	advanced	 	computer 	models

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Rasmus Raabo Reinvang
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